{"ticker":"0x8b369e10358094a99ffe7f85a81a8e8ca68c611eee0fe63a2efa790ad045bcd6","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?","description":"On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). \n\nStatements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., \"Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz\") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.","price":43,"bestBid":42,"bestAsk":44,"spread":2,"volume":2504148.387296986,"volume24h":48578.069143,"openInterest":73632.9256,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-05-31","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":25,"edge":19,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-08T06:05:48.007Z","firstDetectedPrice":41}],"slug":"trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by-ma-polymarket-0x8b369e1035","indicators":{"tauDays":22,"iyYes":2138.495854833378,"iyNo":1320.1938695655035,"cri":1.273,"ee":18,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0227,"cvr":null,"overround":0.76,"rv":435.74,"vr":0.985,"iar":1.95,"adjIy":2089.95,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-05-09T06:38:25.900Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.625,"label":"taker","signals":{"spreadCents":2,"volume24h":48578.069143,"sfEdgeCents":19,"sfEdgeDirection":"no"},"computedAt":"2026-05-09T06:46:34.392Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0x8b369e10358094a99ffe7f85a81a8e8ca68c611eee0fe63a2efa790ad045bcd6","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x8b369e10358094a99ffe7f85a81a8e8ca68c611eee0fe63a2efa790ad045bcd6"},{"description":"Orderbook depth","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x8b369e10358094a99ffe7f85a81a8e8ca68c611eee0fe63a2efa790ad045bcd6?depth=true"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by-ma-polymarket-0x8b369e1035","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x8b369e10358094a99ffe7f85a81a8e8ca68c611eee0fe63a2efa790ad045bcd6","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x8b369e10358094a99ffe7f85a81a8e8ca68c611eee0fe63a2efa790ad045bcd6","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T06:46:34.392Z"}