{"ticker":"0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.","price":84,"bestBid":82,"bestAsk":85,"spread":2,"volume":48865.565773,"volume24h":1931.52202,"openInterest":20411.92902,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-11-03","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":90,"edge":7,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-19T06:04:16.060Z","firstDetectedPrice":84}],"indicators":{"tauDays":195,"iyYes":35.66000191000833,"iyNo":982.8788026446043,"cri":5.25,"ee":5,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0238,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":479.74,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-04-22T00:53:18.271Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.55,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":2,"volume24h":1931.52202,"sfEdgeCents":7,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T01:00:20.585Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c"},{"description":"Orderbook depth","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c?depth=true"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c","fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T01:00:20.586Z"}