{"ticker":"0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","price":9,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":10,"spread":2,"volume":475481.44669199944,"volume24h":22503.470103,"openInterest":27109.8228,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-04-30","indicators":{"tauDays":8,"iyYes":46346.296063739246,"iyNo":453.33292853071833,"cri":10.111,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.2222,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":18024.07,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-04-22T00:53:18.318Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":2,"volume24h":22503.470103,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.5},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T00:55:40.774Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a"},{"description":"Orderbook depth","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a?depth=true"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a","fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T00:55:40.774Z"}