{"ticker":"0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499","venue":"polymarket","title":"Iran closes its airspace by May 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","price":7,"bestBid":6,"bestAsk":6,"spread":0,"volume":7003579.45365897,"volume24h":392964.0919180001,"openInterest":46047.30217,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-05-31","liquidityScore":"medium","bidLevels":[{"price":6,"size":2200},{"price":6,"size":94},{"price":6,"size":15},{"price":6,"size":58},{"price":5,"size":100},{"price":5,"size":50},{"price":5,"size":8},{"price":4,"size":3121}],"askLevels":[{"price":6,"size":189},{"price":7,"size":20},{"price":7,"size":54},{"price":8,"size":70},{"price":8,"size":40},{"price":9,"size":300},{"price":9,"size":24},{"price":10,"size":100}],"slug":"iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-polymarket-0xb7dd41c16c","indicators":{"tauDays":2,"iyYes":100000,"iyNo":1057.5520808182266,"cri":15.667,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1667,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.54,"rv":2333.49,"vr":0.676,"iar":2.36,"adjIy":83330,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-05-28T19:08:25.427Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":0,"bidDepthUsd":5646,"askDepthUsd":797,"volume24h":392964.0919180001},"computedAt":"2026-05-28T19:20:01.797Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-polymarket-0xb7dd41c16c","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499","fetchedAt":"2026-05-28T19:20:01.797Z"}