{"ticker":"0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0","venue":"polymarket","title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","price":17,"bestBid":16,"bestAsk":18,"spread":2,"volume":283445.524668,"volume24h":3001.1768979999997,"openInterest":59725.1181,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","bidLevels":[{"price":16,"size":1972},{"price":15,"size":5007},{"price":14,"size":2755},{"price":13,"size":860},{"price":12,"size":9258},{"price":11,"size":26084},{"price":10,"size":210},{"price":9,"size":500}],"askLevels":[{"price":18,"size":45},{"price":19,"size":1088},{"price":20,"size":2477},{"price":21,"size":2350},{"price":22,"size":300},{"price":23,"size":105},{"price":24,"size":170},{"price":25,"size":242}],"edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":50,"edge":32,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-07-14T06:06:42.309Z","firstDetectedPrice":28},{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":40,"edge":22,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-07-18T06:05:52.985Z","firstDetectedPrice":35}],"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-decembe-polymarket-0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0","indicators":null,"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.625,"label":"taker","signals":{"spreadPct":null,"depthChange1h":null,"volumeZscore":null,"flowImbalance":null,"crossVenueGap":null,"catalystType":null,"catalystHours":null,"sfEdgeCents":32,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes","observability":null,"eventType":null,"asPrior":null},"computedAt":"2026-08-09T21:35:16.206Z","fresh":false},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-decembe-polymarket-0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0","fetchedAt":"2026-08-09T21:35:36.549Z"}