{"ticker":"0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33","venue":"polymarket","title":"Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?","description":"On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nFor the purpose of this market, \"goes into effect\" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nOnly tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.\n\nA general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.","price":11,"bestBid":7,"bestAsk":15,"spread":8,"volume":32891.979796,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":1761.0429,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-06-30","liquidityScore":"low","bidLevels":[{"price":7,"size":10},{"price":6,"size":77},{"price":5,"size":11},{"price":4,"size":25},{"price":3,"size":287},{"price":2,"size":963},{"price":1,"size":1100}],"askLevels":[{"price":15,"size":89},{"price":17,"size":6},{"price":19,"size":86},{"price":20,"size":550},{"price":53,"size":10},{"price":54,"size":96},{"price":62,"size":426},{"price":69,"size":10}],"slug":"tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30-polymarket-0xfd1be18abb","indicators":{"tauDays":57,"iyYes":4669.038980370267,"iyNo":86.82097277548016,"cri":7.333,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.8333,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":389.16,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-05-03T16:08:18.670Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadPct":null,"depthChange1h":null,"volumeZscore":null,"flowImbalance":null,"crossVenueGap":null,"catalystType":null,"catalystHours":null,"sfEdgeCents":null,"sfEdgeDirection":null,"observability":null,"eventType":null,"asPrior":null},"computedAt":"2026-05-03T16:11:02.498Z","fresh":false},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30-polymarket-0xfd1be18abb","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33","fetchedAt":"2026-05-03T16:11:59.651Z"}