{"ticker":"KXFERT-26-1300","venue":"kalshi","title":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?","description":"If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1300 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":24,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":20,"spread":17,"volume":2184.28,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":1538.54,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":65,"edge":54,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-01T06:06:45.445Z","firstDetectedPrice":33}],"slug":"how-high-will-the-price-of-fertilizer-get-this-yea-kalshi-kxfert-26-1300","indicators":{"tauDays":189,"iyYes":6255.521396515778,"iyNo":5.983600017923478,"cri":32.333,"ee":45,"eeSource":"thesis","las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.55,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":3127.76,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":false,"lastComputedAt":"2026-06-26T13:08:41.582Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadPct":null,"depthChange1h":null,"volumeZscore":null,"flowImbalance":null,"crossVenueGap":null,"catalystType":null,"catalystHours":null,"sfEdgeCents":54,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes","observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-26T13:27:15.047Z","fresh":false},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for KXFERT-26-1300","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1300"},{"description":"Orderbook depth","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXFERT-26-1300?depth=true"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/how-high-will-the-price-of-fertilizer-get-this-yea-kalshi-kxfert-26-1300","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXFERT-26-1300","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1300","fetchedAt":"2026-06-26T13:28:49.647Z"}