{"ticker":"KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?","description":"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":33,"bestBid":32,"bestAsk":33,"spread":1,"volume":667870.13,"volume24h":85033.58,"openInterest":282619.34,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-05-19T13:59:00Z","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","thesisPrice":8,"edge":25,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-10T06:04:28.163Z","firstDetectedPrice":33},{"thesisTitle":"The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril","thesisSlug":"hormuz-sarhu","thesisPrice":2,"edge":34,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-02T06:01:05.990Z","firstDetectedPrice":18},{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":8,"edge":28,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-31T06:00:59.918Z","firstDetectedPrice":28}],"indicators":{"tauDays":28,"iyYes":2677.1453562393185,"iyNo":649.4567371228825,"cri":2.03,"ee":27,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0303,"cvr":null,"overround":5.71,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":1298.01,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-04-21T21:38:17.792Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.519,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadPct":null,"depthChange1h":null,"volumeZscore":null,"flowImbalance":null,"crossVenueGap":null,"catalystType":null,"catalystHours":null,"sfEdgeCents":25,"sfEdgeDirection":"no","observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.35},"computedAt":"2026-04-21T21:39:00.485Z","fresh":false},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515"},{"description":"Orderbook depth","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515?depth=true"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:49:15.448Z"}