{"ticker":"KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?","description":"If Joe Manchin has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":26,"bestBid":25,"bestAsk":26,"spread":1,"volume":569,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":559,"status":"active","closeTime":"2028-03-01T15:00:00Z","indicators":{"tauDays":680,"iyYes":161.12703579227417,"iyNo":17.90300397691935,"cri":3,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.04,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":77.34,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-04-22T00:53:17.953Z"},"crossVenue":{"ticker":"0xc80571a1a13b24f40b1855fb51b0339612d548e3a453731832768bbb94c45e68","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?","confidenceScore":0.72,"closeTimeDeltaSec":52758000,"matchMethod":"fts-llm","isArbReady":false,"priceCents":10,"indicators":{"ee":null,"las":0.2,"cvr":null,"tauDays":69,"iyYes":4763.423864971071,"iyNo":58.8077020366799}},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T00:58:59.124Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01"},{"description":"Counterpart on polymarket","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0xc80571a1a13b24f40b1855fb51b0339612d548e3a453731832768bbb94c45e68"},{"description":"Orderbook depth","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01?depth=true"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T00:58:59.124Z"}