{"ticker":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":9,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":9,"spread":1,"volume":2293531.86,"volume24h":201873.29,"openInterest":884000.46,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-06-01T14:00:00Z","bidLevels":[{"price":8,"size":5},{"price":8,"size":669},{"price":8,"size":92},{"price":8,"size":500},{"price":8,"size":1664}],"askLevels":[{"price":9,"size":595},{"price":10,"size":2275},{"price":10,"size":1112},{"price":11,"size":8502},{"price":12,"size":477}],"liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk","thesisSlug":"russia-escalates-ukraine","thesisPrice":5,"edge":54,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-09T06:04:18.600Z","firstDetectedPrice":50},{"thesisTitle":"Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk","thesisSlug":"russia-escalates-ukraine","thesisPrice":5,"edge":25,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-09T06:04:18.600Z","firstDetectedPrice":28},{"thesisTitle":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","thesisSlug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","thesisPrice":12,"edge":49,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-09T06:04:19.899Z","firstDetectedPrice":50},{"thesisTitle":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","thesisSlug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","thesisPrice":5,"edge":4,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-09T06:04:19.899Z","firstDetectedPrice":28},{"thesisTitle":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","thesisPrice":10,"edge":66,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-03T07:22:51.831Z","firstDetectedPrice":40},{"thesisTitle":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","thesisPrice":2,"edge":41,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-03T07:22:51.831Z","firstDetectedPrice":14},{"thesisTitle":"The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril","thesisSlug":"hormuz-sarhu","thesisPrice":2,"edge":54,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-01T06:02:12.108Z","firstDetectedPrice":47},{"thesisTitle":"The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril","thesisSlug":"hormuz-sarhu","thesisPrice":2,"edge":25,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-01T06:02:12.108Z","firstDetectedPrice":25},{"thesisTitle":"MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat","thesisSlug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms","thesisPrice":15,"edge":45,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-31T06:01:53.343Z","firstDetectedPrice":50},{"thesisTitle":"MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat","thesisSlug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms","thesisPrice":2,"edge":28,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-31T06:01:53.343Z","firstDetectedPrice":25},{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":62,"edge":-1,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-01T06:01:53.655Z","firstDetectedPrice":47},{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":12,"edge":-3,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-01T06:01:53.655Z","firstDetectedPrice":25}],"slug":"will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jun","indicators":{"tauDays":8,"iyYes":48700.91786164629,"iyNo":476.364490616272,"cri":10.111,"ee":9,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0,"cvr":null,"overround":3.86,"rv":2984.33,"vr":1.25,"iar":1.36,"adjIy":48700.92,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-05-25T00:08:24.530Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":2930,"askDepthUsd":12961,"volume24h":201873.29,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.3,"sfEdgeCents":54,"sfEdgeDirection":"no"},"computedAt":"2026-05-25T00:30:51.118Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jun","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN","fetchedAt":"2026-05-25T00:30:51.119Z"}