US and global elections, political races, and electoral outcomes.
The global political and elections prediction market ecosystem is currently dominated by speculation on the **2028 US Presidential election** alongside key near-term events like the **2024 US election** and various international races. Total desk volume stands at **$106.73M** across 737 markets, indicating deep liquidity and significant speculative interest. While canonical markets are heavily focused on election outcomes, recent high-volume markets show a pronounced shift toward **short-term, non-electoral political drama** (e.g., Epstein files) and **sports betting**, which currently command the highest single-market volumes.
Last updated: 1/15/2026, 12:01:41 PM
The cornerstone market for the entire desk. Despite polling volatility, prediction markets have consistently priced Trump as a moderate favorite (~58%). This anchors sentiment across related primary and administration markets.
A critical binary risk for Democrats. Current ~72% probability suggests markets see a non-trivial (~28%) chance of Biden exiting the race pre-convention, which would trigger massive volatility in nomination and general election markets.
Serves as an early, high-confidence signal for Trump's nomination path. A price above 75% indicates markets view the primary as largely decided, with significant downside risk only in the event of a major shock.
Despite being settled at 100% YES, this market saw enormous volume ($11.39M), reflecting intense retail and speculative interest in the political-media scandal narrative, a theme that can drive outsized flows.
New Hampshire Republican Primary
Republican National Convention
Democratic National Convention
US Election Day