US and global elections, political races, and electoral outcomes.
The Elections Trading Desk currently monitors 1,905 markets with a substantial total trading volume of $3,717.75 million. The market landscape is dominated by long-dated speculation, primarily centered on the 2028 US Presidential Election, which is the most significant active prediction event. A clear thematic divide exists: one cluster of high-importance markets focuses on specific candidates for the 2028 race, while another demonstrates extremely high conviction (93.5% probability) on near-term Trump administration appointments, notably the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. The 2026 Trump administration event and various international elections, such as the Portugal Presidential Election, add further layers. Volume is concentrated, with the top markets often exceeding $30 million, though many political nomination markets are currently priced with very low single-digit probabilities, indicating they are viewed as long-shot speculative plays rather than core scenarios.
Last updated: 3/1/2026, 6:01:00 PM
This market is a foundational historical anchor for the desk, directly influencing all subsequent Trump-related markets and administration prediction events. Its settled 'YES' outcome sets the stage for the 2026 administration markets.
Exhibits extremely high market conviction at 93.5% YES. This is a key near-term policy catalyst with significant macroeconomic implications, representing one of the highest-probability, high-volume active trades on the desk.
A high-importance, low-probability (0.1%) speculative market. Its presence indicates significant trader interest in unconventional scenarios, though it is not considered a base case.
Among the specific 2028 candidate markets, Rubio is a leading contender with a non-trivial probability. Volume and importance suggest it is a central market for modeling the 2028 Republican field.
Represents a key international political risk market. A 40% probability on a specific candidate indicates a competitive race that is closely watched by the desk for EU political sentiment signals.
Formal announcement of Fed Chair nominee by the Trump administration.
Early jockeying and declarations for the 2028 US Presidential race.
Portugal Presidential Election.
Key policy and personnel decisions under the 'Trump Administration 2026' prediction event.