Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation, and economic indicators.
The Macro & Rates desk is currently dominated by speculation around the Federal Reserve's policy path for 2026, with significant focus on the January and March FOMC meetings. Market consensus, as evidenced by prediction market prices, points to a period of policy stability in the near term. The market for 'No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?' is trading at a 100.0% 'YES' probability with over $106M in volume, strongly indicating expectations for a pause. Concurrently, there is virtually no pricing for immediate rate hikes or cuts of any magnitude in January. However, forward-looking markets for March 2026 show a slight, non-zero probability for policy changes, suggesting uncertainty further out on the horizon. A secondary, high-volume theme is the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump in 2026, with several candidates being actively priced. The desk's total volume exceeds $2.3 billion, demonstrating deep liquidity and trader engagement with these long-dated macroeconomic events. The presence of non-macro markets like Super Bowl and crypto predictions within the top volumes, while notable, appears to be noise in the context of this desk's core focus.
Last updated: 3/1/2026, 6:01:53 PM
Trading at 0% YES, this market reflects extreme confidence that the Fed will not enact an aggressive 50+ bps cut at the start of 2026. This aligns with the 'hold' narrative dominant for January.
Also at 0% YES, this market confirms that traders see no chance of a resumption of hiking cycles in early 2026, reinforcing a neutral-to-dovish policy outlook.
The cornerstone of current desk sentiment. A 100% probability with high volume signals a near-unanimous expectation for policy stability at the January 2026 meeting.
At 3.8% YES, Judy Shelton is the frontrunner among named candidates in this speculative political market, though it remains a low-probability event overall.
Trading at 0% YES, this market rules out even a standard 25 bps cut in January 2026, further solidifying the 'hold' consensus for the first meeting of the year.
Potential announcement of Federal Reserve Chair nominee by President Trump
Release of key Q3/Q4 2025 inflation (CPI/PCE) and employment data
January 2026 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference