Policy & Tech Desk

Market Overview

The Policy & Tech Desk monitors 1,012 active markets with $446.54M in total volume across two prediction events focused on AI regulation (2025 and 2026). Markets span regulatory actions, antitrust, tech policy, and government decisions, with high concentration in U.S. politics, AI development, and major tech/entertainment milestones. Current landscape shows extreme polarization: some markets (e.g., Epstein files) trade at near-100% certainty while others (e.g., Canada annexation) remain highly speculative despite high importance scores.

Last updated: 2/20/2026, 12:02:44 PM

Top Markets

Weekly Highlights

• •Epstein files markets saw ~$12.31M combined volume (Musk + Trump release markets) with probabilities pinned at 100%, suggesting traders view disclosure as fait accompli.
• •Supreme Court tariff ruling market attracted $4.58M volume at 23.5% YES, indicating skepticism of Court supporting Trump's tariff authority despite campaign promises.
• •GTA VI delay speculation active across platforms: 'Grand Theft Auto VI Release Delayed Past November 19, 2026' (canonical) vs. 'GTA VI released before June 2026?' (3% YES on Polymarket). Divergence suggests uncertainty on exact timeline.
• •AI model supremacy markets show split: Google at 100% YES for top model by Dec 31 ($4.2M volume) while Z.ai by end of 2025 trades at lower probability (not in top volume list). Suggest near-term confidence in Google, longer-term uncertainty.