Regulatory actions, antitrust, tech policy, and government decisions.
The Policy & Tech desk monitors 413 markets with $67.41M in total volume, primarily focused on high-stakes political and technology outcomes. The landscape is dominated by two active prediction events: AI Regulation & Policy for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the centrality of AI governance to the desk's mandate. Current trading reveals a concentration of high-volume activity on near-term, high-certainty events (e.g., Elon Musk tweet counts, sports outcomes), while high-importance, canonical markets—mostly with 2025-2027 resolutions—trade on longer-term political and tech M&A theses. This creates a bifurcated market structure: high-volume, low-importance speculative markets vs. high-importance, lower-volume strategic bets.
Last updated: 1/14/2026, 6:02:04 AM
Combined high importance (9) and immediate political impact makes this a core directional bet on Trump's executive power and electoral strategy. Low current volume suggests it's still establishing a price.
Represents a key fiscal policy pivot with major market implications. A 'YES' would signal pro-growth policies but risks trade war escalation.
Extremely high-importance (8) but low-volume. Its outcome is a bellwether for AI hype, liquidity events, and regulatory posture towards mega-cap tech.
Highest-volume market ($7.92M) with 100% 'YES' probability indicates a resolved or near-certain event. It shows trader focus on immediate, high-profile news catalysts.
Inauguration & First 100 Days of Trump Administration
OpenAI's Next Major Model Release (Potential GPT-5 or Math-Specialized Model)
DOJ/FTC Antitrust Reviews of Major Tech Deals
IPO Window Reopening for Tech Unicorns
EU AI Act Implementation & U.S. Congressional AI Bills