58c contagion lag: Democratic FL-23 lags CA-17 trigger by 78c
C1 and C3 show Democratic House race triggers in CA-17 and CA-44 moving +78c delta while FL-23 Democratic contract sits at 82c — a -58c contagion gap. The uniform gap across 8 contract pairs (C1 through C8) at identical -58c magnitude signals a structural pricing inefficiency rather than noise. FL-23 at 82c should be re-rated toward trigger-implied fair value as election cycle information propagates. Buy the lagging FL-23 Democratic contract before contagion closes the gap.
All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts.
CatalystNational Democratic polling shift or candidate fundraising data release updating cross-district models
RiskFL-23 has genuine district-specific risk factors (incumbency, demographics) that justify the discount vs. CA safe seats
WatchFL-23 Democratic contract reprices to 90c+, closing gap with trigger-implied fair value · by 2026-11-03
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