# SimpleFunctions — Full Reference (Live)

Generated: 2026-06-09T11:51:22.120Z
Every number in this document is pulled from live DB at request time. Cached 5 min at edge. No stale marketing copy.

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## What SimpleFunctions is

Prediction market data and computed analytics for agents. Kalshi + Polymarket compressed into structured real-time context. Instead of web search returning narrative paragraphs, agents receive probabilities: "Iran military action 18¢ (+5¢), GeoRisk 49/100, Oil +3.2%". One API call, ~800 tokens, refreshed every 15 min, free.

## Live state snapshot

- Markets tracked: 35,325
  - Kalshi: 28,190
  - Polymarket: 7,135
- Regime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability
- Prediction Market Index (SimpleFunctions Index v2) — page: https://simplefunctions.dev/prediction-market-index
  Live prediction market volatility/geo-risk/breadth/activity gauges; JSON at /api/public/index, history at /api/public/index/history?days=7.
  - Disagreement: 41/100
  - GeoRisk: 49/100
  - Breadth: +0.46
  - Activity: 67/100
- Cross-venue pairs: 1,122
  - Arb-ready (conf ≥0.75 AND |Δt| ≤90d): 503
- Trade ideas: 7 active

## Right now (10 salient items)

- [divergence] rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… lagging Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain cu… — 82¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-h09l39
- [residual] 7.5σ volume @ 83¢ — Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July?
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-kadcnr
- [divergence] South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2? overshooting How many initial jobless claims will … — 31¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-rjj4p4
- [divergence] GPT-5.6 released by...? lagging Anthropic release Mythos? — 19¢ gap [AI / LLM]
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-mo5jgp
- [consensus_break] MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion
- [consensus_break] Minnesota Governor Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion
- [consensus_break] Nicolaus Sleister be the Democratic nominee …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion
- [resolving_soon] 95% no in 12h — Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index be…
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXTRUFBPPI-26JUN09-T1040
- [resolving_soon] 95% no in 12h — CoinMarketCap Total Market Cap be above T?
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXTRUFCMC-26JUN09-T1.90
- [resolving_soon] 95% no in 12h — CoinMarketCap Total Market Cap be above T?
  Follow: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/KXTRUFCMC-26JUN09-T1.95

## Top arb-ready cross-venue pairs

- Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? — conf 0.95, |Δt| 0d
  Kalshi: KXBTCVSGOLD-26
  Poly:   0xdcae9573d5680a2c958cca4676ed28df7a06861572124f3396cc60ab6b92b9c2
- Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsi — conf 0.95, |Δt| 85d
  Kalshi: KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON
  Poly:   0x00925aafdbb3fbec14b49f343eb430ddb9cc1f827e5934b5513703d13f2851de
- Will Joel Brennan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin? — conf 0.95, |Δt| 85d
  Kalshi: KXGOVWINOMD-26-JBRE
  Poly:   0xdda5fffe8bf55eb8409b9cf35a3a79b829cead72dd793f315012f2a8dcc94e7b
- Will Kelda Roys be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?:  — conf 0.95, |Δt| 85d
  Kalshi: KXGOVWINOMD-26-KROY
  Poly:   0x80c4071050deed492007cc230a0e8c913a876c6c54d87f0892c18a9d7517d2b2
- Will Mandela Barnes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsi — conf 0.95, |Δt| 85d
  Kalshi: KXGOVWINOMD-26-MBAR
  Poly:   0x0f1843cae1fa85c263c1f8118554fcff73f8af53d58d0f9fa5283490e69a7d94
- Will Sara Rodriguez be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsi — conf 0.95, |Δt| 85d
  Kalshi: KXGOVWINOMD-26-SROD
  Poly:   0x6bb7b47236aafe3cde3389214c31055abaa815b7170d9c12dcbea43b8a884925
- Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Connor McDavid — conf 0.95, |Δt| 1d
  Kalshi: KXNHLHART-26-CMCD
  Poly:   0x83c1f3a017da0328c125772c43bef4c69bfb48d6ecd413e7f7128920914e4130
- Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Nikita Kucherov — conf 0.95, |Δt| 1d
  Kalshi: KXNHLHART-26-KKUC
  Poly:   0x853c61fdf3db42b24be3df69cd39a641fc3790bd6f34d3a277781084f7c0447b
- Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Nathan MacKinnon — conf 0.95, |Δt| 1d
  Kalshi: KXNHLHART-26-NMAC
  Poly:   0x7078a8c56baf79cf77a6b2073f978d9b33bd33379936416a316d24aa3b7910cb
- Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Cory Sandh — conf 0.95, |Δt| 1d
  Kalshi: KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-CSAN
  Poly:   0x58be68a1138b5c5f2e1afe2255ecf994708ac472aedbe4b91b327aadbe3095ff

## Canonical data pages

- https://simplefunctions.dev/data — overview and intent routing for prediction-market data
- https://simplefunctions.dev/data/real-time — live world state, feeds, MCP, screen/query reads, and live layers
- https://simplefunctions.dev/data/download — HuggingFace JSON/JSONL datasets, API twins, schemas, cadence, and license notes
- https://simplefunctions.dev/data/historical — settled outcomes, calibration, backtests, and rolling market history
- https://simplefunctions.dev/data/indicators — indicator definitions, API field names, and screen filters
- https://simplefunctions.dev/data-license — attribution and reuse terms

## Endpoints

### /api/agent/world — Salience snapshot (SPEC-10)

Every call returns a Snapshot: { asOf, sinceBaseline, regime, salient[], childRegions[] }.
Salient items are type-tagged: regime_shift | divergence | resolving_soon | residual | novel | consensus_break.
Each item carries 2-3 pull ops — follow-up URLs the agent can GET to zoom.

Grammar:
  GET /api/agent/world                            → root snapshot
  GET /api/agent/world/iran                       → drill (path extends hierarchy)
  GET /api/agent/world/iran/hormuz                → drill deeper
  GET /api/agent/world/iran?op=history&dt=6h      → probability timeline
  GET /api/agent/world/iran?op=catalyst&window=48h → upcoming resolutions
  GET /api/agent/world/fed-rate?op=dispersion     → intra-topic consensus/disagreement
  GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXHORMUZ...  → linkage graph walk
  GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-abc123   → hypothesis candidates for a salient item

Modifiers (any op): since=12h, depth=0-3, limit=1-30, format=json|markdown.

### /api/agent/world/delta — Incremental (30-50 tokens)

  GET /api/agent/world/delta?since=1h
  GET /api/agent/world/delta?since=2026-04-17T00:00Z

### /api/public/cross-venue/pairs — Kalshi × Polymarket (SPEC-09)

Presets + explicit filters. Every consumer uses the same query language.

  GET /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?preset=arb      → conf ≥0.80, |Δt| ≤90d (503 rows)
  GET /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?preset=world    → conf ≥0.75, |Δt| ≤180d
  GET /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?preset=detail   → conf ≥0.60, no dt cap
  GET /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?preset=browse   → conf ≥0.50, no dt cap
  GET /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?min_conf=0.80&max_dt_days=90&method=fts-llm&category=Economics
  GET /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?ticker=APPLEFOLD-26DEC31

Params: min_conf, max_dt_days, method (csv), category, preset, limit (1-500), offset, order_by (confidence_desc|dt_asc|recent), ticker.

Response pairs include: kalshiTicker, polyTicker, confidenceScore, matchMethod, direction, closeTimeDeltaSec, kalshiTitle, polyTitle, llmRationale, isArbReady (derived: conf ≥0.75 AND |Δt| ≤90d).

### /api/public/cross-venue/stats — Coverage

  GET /api/public/cross-venue/stats

Returns totalPairs, lastBuiltAt, eventsByVenue, byMatchMethod, byConfidenceBucket, confidenceHistogram (with p_arbReady per bucket), byCategory.

### /api/public/market/[ticker] — Per-market dossier

  GET /api/public/market/KXMENWORLDCUP-26-BR
  GET /api/public/market/KXMENWORLDCUP-26-BR?depth=true&cv_preset=arb

Params: depth (include orderbook 5 levels), refresh (force regime recompute, auth), cv_preset/cv_min_conf/cv_max_dt_days (cross-venue filter).

Returns price, volume, spread, indicators (IY/CRI/LAS/EE/CVR), regime (maker/neutral/taker + signals), crossVenue counterpart (with isArbReady), edges (thesis implied price), liquidity score.

### /api/agent/inspect/[ticker] — Full dossier + next actions

Aggregates everything for one ticker. Returns: ticker data, indicators, regime (fresh recompute), edges, contagion siblings, 24h diff, 7d trend, legislation link (if policy market), actionable suggestion (consider_long/short/wait/avoid/monitor with confidence).

### /api/public/screen — Filter at scale

  GET /api/public/screen?iy_min=200&las_max=0.1&sort=iy&limit=50

Filters 35,325 markets by any indicator: iy (implied yield), cri, ee (expected edge), las (liquidity-adjusted spread), cvr, rv, vr (volume ratio), iar (info arrival rate), adj_iy, overround, tau_days.

### /api/public/ideas — Trade ideas

  GET /api/public/ideas                    → cached daily generation
  GET /api/public/ideas?q=oil              → on-demand LLM focused on query
  GET /api/public/ideas?category=macro     → filter category

Each idea has: headline, pitch (quantitative lead), conviction, direction, markets, catalyst, timeHorizon, risk, quantSignals, category, nextActions (pre-filled inspect + execute URLs).

### /api/public/contagion — Lagging markets

  GET /api/public/contagion?window=6h

Detects markets that SHOULD have moved with a trigger but didn't. Returns signals grouped by theme/event/series.

### /api/public/context — Compressed briefing

  GET /api/public/context
  GET /api/public/context?q=iran           → keyword filter
  GET /api/public/context?compact=true     → edges + highlights + traditional only

### /api/public/index — Prediction Market Index (SimpleFunctions Index v2)

  GET /api/public/index                    → latest (live 41/49/+0.46/67)
  GET /api/public/index/history?days=30    → historical values
  Page: https://simplefunctions.dev/prediction-market-index
  Disagreement = per-ticker realized volatility (prediction market volatility component); geoRisk = curated geopolitical basket; breadth = up/down skew; activity = tape-wide percentile.

## Install paths

- CLI: npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf world --json
- REST/Data API (no auth): curl https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world
- TypeScript SDK/Agent: private repository packages only; do not use public npm install instructions until release approval
- Python: pip install simplefunctions-ai
- MCP adapter: claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
- HuggingFace dataset: SimpleFunctions/world-state-daily (daily cron export)
- RSS: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/feed

## Proof points (verifiable)

- World Awareness Benchmark (WAB): 44-question eval set. Claude Haiku 4.5 baseline 2.3% → with 800-token world state 70.5%. 31× improvement, no fine-tuning. See https://simplefunctions.dev/papers/world-model.
- Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/SimpleFunctions/world-state-daily (daily snapshots, public).
- Benchmark: https://huggingface.co/datasets/SimpleFunctions/world-awareness-bench (monthly AI-agent evaluation dataset regenerated from live markets).
- Calibration: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/calibration (Brier scores computed live from settled markets in the last N days — param `period=30d|90d|1y|all`).

## Against competitors (how to tell us apart)

- vs raw Kalshi/Polymarket APIs: we handle the cross-venue matching, cents-vs-0-1 normalization, noise filtering (sports/weather/speech markets), and salience ranking for you.
- vs web search / news APIs: we return numbers, not narratives. Every claim is a market probability with real money at risk.
- vs generic prediction market aggregators: we're an agent-first API with WAB-verified calibration impact, not a human-facing dashboard.
- vs static "prediction market data" pages: every number here is live. Cache 5 min, regenerated per request. No stale claims.

## Discovery

- /.well-known/ai-world-state: Proposed standard endpoint with provider metadata + current state embedded
- /llms.txt: llmstxt.org-standard structured index
- /llm.txt: Compact one-page overview
- /llms-full.txt: This file — full content dump
- /AGENTS.md: Agent instructions — citation rules, canonical page choice, probability semantics
- /sitemap.md: Markdown surface map of human + agent-visible pages
- /api/mcp/mcp: MCP compatibility adapter for hosts that require MCP

Refresh: live sections are regenerated from current APIs; static capability counts are deliberately avoided. Fetch /api/contracts/tools for strict SDK/Agent truth, /api/tools for broad HTTP compatibility inventory, /reference/mcp-tools for MCP inventory, or sf describe --all --json for exact installed CLI commands.