Lionel Messi · 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Argentina Squad
Lionel Messi is priced at 97¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 95¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Argentina Squad.
Price history
97¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Lionel Messi
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Julián Álvarez 99¢
Range
9¢-99¢
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
0x94c620a7...96f1
May 24, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
95¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$10
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Argentina Squad
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
95 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0x94c620a7…96f1
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 91¢, +6¢ versus this page.
Event family
2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Argentina Squad.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Julián Álvarez 99¢
Current share
31%
Julián Álvarez
polymarket · 0x057d07fce5389ebdf5fb993f7f1e7a7e240da6247007f010765e148fff233065
Lionel Messi
polymarket · 0x94c620a7bea1baf4f1064b24a735d9c10b8e816c9c3359e68dfaf6a08a6c96f1
Lautaro Martínez
polymarket · 0xe24e87d46ecbd847d3c9ddd0d2ddbdb927c1cbdd290581b6dbd31df049c6ebd0
Thiago Almada
polymarket · 0xec2fdf547375eb36f92c9c2a20adadfc9360611faa826229e1d3b319fdb74712
Rodrigo De Paul
polymarket · 0xd9bdd2b7c1a98d11c535e0dd4736b9bae0387a7d14cd214020f1ddae7efc9d01
Emiliano Martínez
polymarket · 0x418e52ba3d3e07a19f4aaaa5a5b18c085e4187ac17cee35a72e453a7569ef31c
Giuliano Simeone
polymarket · 0x3138db2ecc523042d1b44ddd0800411450fc3703efd719459a3d11dba35d5c5f
Enzo Fernández
polymarket · 0x099963661bf2c0953d7069492e0bd02510ea1f8c8e26246fae3efd327f5c1086
Alexis Mac Allister
polymarket · 0xb0a3bb1856e3bb0423c18bdf5b6d35d2c10c43b36cd5549544174ff9ae9a24bc
Cristian Romero
polymarket · 0xa5a481f3e3d3f65fc32c9d19cb025209d69250faf1b6d9631aa0ea40513176ba
Alejandro Garnacho
polymarket · 0xbc39ba784fd3dc7376c3c6ace5dc9f023cf00af212d21978375254b66ccfc148
Marcos Senesi
polymarket · 0x5206a5c833b1e36d55947a0a03e150844da41e2db8556fc0946de707bcadd5fd
Giovani Lo Celso
polymarket · 0x31794ad6826edc65e34271bcffa39512e31995eb0faae866be203b14c686a5ec
Gianluca Prestianni
polymarket · 0x2140882f180325b721beb84c2d995b68bfed16b3d254235e5f873e1125daa749
Franco Mastantuono
polymarket · 0x0a82abd8dab4817c8012b40a3b16ad247a6af2e9205ffbedac07e059364a64dd
Joaquín Panichelli
polymarket · 0x70c90fd2ef0046534cb12a6d97b6c2a249d2f26adebec21b2ec7c2fb57176ded
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 97% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.