João Pedro · 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Brazil Squad
João Pedro is priced at 37¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 12 inside 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Brazil Squad.
Price history
37¢ current
−17¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
João Pedro
Rank
#1 of 12
Leader
João Pedro 35¢
Range
0¢-35¢
Family volume
$136K
Identifier
0x830397c9...d716
May 24, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
10¢
24h volume
$467
Family rank
#1 of 12
12 outcomes · 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Brazil Squad
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$136K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0x830397c9…d716
Event family
2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Brazil Squad.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$136K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
João Pedro 35¢
Current share
37%
João Pedro
polymarket · 0x830397c9111469e48736fd0a9d57f58db8a720644588cfac80938ccd609cd716
Bento
polymarket · 0x6d3de6ad4c641d606a009a8b3c643853e286d2e25cb708e8ee0c517cee2b356c
Andrey Santos
polymarket · 0x3e3fdc9572e754a1133da5036ce4d224bc29ed4f453fdba734fbd49929913535
Richarlison
polymarket · 0x9e7490202c2a190d008dc89c0346548e1c04131270aad8932171d68c9b70ed4b
Rodrygo
polymarket · 0x6bf225e4b1722ca49e4c90ea3cc491e6be7dd082cc09c3e68b79552d0c4806d5
Éder Militão
polymarket · 0xa3a9bb6798ebc439c48781824defc63784c03b41803819f6fb3412884f9879ef
Savinho
polymarket · 0xd3c7e125dbd821e6c7f60c1788af58ad9a04d9dd094dbaa7403f27910651f73b
Vitor Roque
polymarket · 0x3ac2a3efada30a245684eae918d1e3f2aa56ab8840de09ec9b641eaef04039b7
Danilo Barbosa da Silva
polymarket · 0x3ad621a21135e15b9cbfd6f869a6a2a15d68e001ce1c52041f8d750e57e7bc02
Estêvão
polymarket · 0x579cf85cb89f4d1364591a0d38ef882b49c4ef9a0e156876033adc8a16226ab0
Kaiki
polymarket · 0x643928f70848fdb55e43bbf6a974c2830dcfeae8ff5317dec4925fb1accd845c
Gabriel Sara
polymarket · 0x277177920b8422de4d19160812ab5a1d69332bf55f141518a74cb61a55f6b9de
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.