SimpleFunctions

Cristiano Ronaldo · 2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer

Cristiano Ronaldo is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside 2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer.

Price history

5¢ current

0¢5¢10¢
May 19, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Cristiano Ronaldo

Rank

#6 of 16

Leader

Kylian Mbappe 14¢

Range

0¢-14¢

Family volume

$164K

Identifier

0xd7e4d546...85e7

May 24, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

5¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$818

Family rank

#6 of 16

16 outcomes · 2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer

Closes

Jul 20, 2026

Family volume

$164K

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 5¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
5¢20
4¢100
4¢81
4¢95
3¢100
3¢100
3¢100
3¢100
AskSize
5¢40
5¢100
5¢74
5¢848
6¢100
7¢100
8¢100
12¢3.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jul 20, 2026

Identifier

0xd7e4d546…85e7

SF Signal
SF Index
12298.28
Regime
neutral

Event family

2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$164K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Kylian Mbappe 14¢

Current share

5%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Kylian Mbappe

polymarket · 0xfa021d817ad33e0fa28e04051b4fea25b0a090e94bb1b2a38b377bce9778eb8e

14¢
$33K$536

Harry Kane

polymarket · 0xb9caf777115e4f38eb4e2de7fab3e88052b92a78f161f91db232be31a93d1e3e

14¢
$13K$183

Erling Haaland

polymarket · 0xb4431b4a10c926381c72d581ba9bec629f430feea5e72fbaff3a9e2ac87a3001

7¢
$9K$186

Mikel Oyarzabal

polymarket · 0xeefef4320deec275a7191ad901469eec59544dc1fd53fed93f6d3b97c33787a5

7¢
$7K$1080.1

Lionel Messi

polymarket · 0xd2a8caba5559bc21e14f6b2aa504cb14a1782751658b71409e25b82e432c0a97

6¢
$5K$238

Julian Alvarez

polymarket · 0xff8763ee77aec9cc4223cd429c726d35877ddcc47da679d6428510a929286ad1

5¢
$12K$2K0.0

Cristiano Ronaldo

polymarket · 0xd7e4d5460c92e0bfb839e9ac51677527894a176208481734400756db85d985e7

5¢
$7K$818

Raphinha

polymarket · 0x6d4e8d2d25f1826c0bd0f0b66948bfd612e6014717d58ac79606ba1256fa57d1

4¢
$13K$721

Lamine Yamal

polymarket · 0xf47125a3640583900868a2e1f102d2c093c8a1512fb379709446d9cad73578d8

4¢
$9K$0

Ousmane Dembele

polymarket · 0x624517215cc5c73eec1ff74db2ef92bf798fac6b61cd00d11a05418520290f69

4¢
$6K$80

Lautaro Martinez

polymarket · 0xd2828d51d403c9317a50226752257eb5f4e9f85bb49ad6a191e5fba6eceb781c

4¢
$3K$0

Michael Olise

polymarket · 0x8a743d2c48a6ffc5763e2209d4cf1053ccbae1a6eb80cc33bd702a3fe4b10156

3¢
$7K$0

Ferran Torres

polymarket · 0x4a6fd3438ea67c71c56d1fb2613b83d617e0ae5c6496550c0a90cbf780297728

3¢
$7K$0

Luis Diaz

polymarket · 0x74cff4f2fa829c29f677232157c2793bb8b1ee836c9978ffe9e426182cc7244f

1¢
$3K$202

Serge Gnabry

polymarket · 0x0c03f45ca5053de6a7bb9716cdd24376a8953154b788519a3d26b09b711c0365

0¢
$15K$3K

Rodrygo

polymarket · 0xacf12709f9401864eefaf79ea3c85b649db1b05faf131ac0d9ac7c215ede0dfa

0¢
$14K$40

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

12298.3%

IY (No)

34.1%

Adj IY

12298%

CRI

19

RV

1081%

VR

0.87

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

12298.3%
34.1%
Adj IY
12298%
19
RV
1081%
VR
0.87
IAR
0.2/h
Overround
-0.1%

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.