SimpleFunctions

Unbeaten Champion for 2026 FIFA World Cup

2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion is priced at 77¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 76¢ bid, 77¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

77¢ current

+3¢
70¢75¢80¢
May 19, 2026May 22, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion goes unbeaten in every match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, “unbeaten” is defined as having not recorded a loss during any match in any stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmed unbeaten champion within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$88K

Identifier

0x00406e85...9ee8

May 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

77¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

76¢

Ask

77¢

Spread

24h volume

$98

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jul 20, 2026

Family volume

$88K

Orderbook snapshot

76 / 77¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
76¢5.2K
75¢1.5K
74¢53K
73¢105
72¢20
71¢10
68¢15
19¢158
AskSize
77¢881
78¢5.7K
79¢22K
80¢12K
81¢400
82¢10K
86¢5
87¢30

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion goes unbeaten in every match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, “unbeaten” is defined as having not recorded a loss during any match in any stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmed unbeaten champion within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jul 20, 2026

Identifier

0x00406e85…9ee8

SF Signal
SF Index
1074.36
Regime
neutral

Event family

2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$88K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion 77¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

191.7%
2148.7%
Adj IY
1074%
3

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.