Inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026
Above 4.5% is priced at 71¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 70¢ bid, 71¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside How high will inflation get in 2026?.
Price history
71¢ current
+20¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Outcome
Above 4.5%
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Above 4% 98¢
Range
5¢-98¢
Family volume
$557K
Identifier
0xf4a457c3...eaad
May 24, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
70¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$629
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · How high will inflation get in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$557K
Orderbook snapshot
70 / 71¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xf4a457c3…eaad
Event family
How high will inflation get in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$557K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Above 4% 98¢
Current share
3%
Above 4%
polymarket · 0x1f61db83c47fc787f44997af53d517cc4775e813b169d0b8ae2ad3bff316d052
Above 4.5%
polymarket · 0xf4a457c3a455917897fd89aa7d1cea256a8b325eded3c05c7ff771c948fbeaad
Above 5%
polymarket · 0xa792f029046f2c926ee81c7d9802c21a4a651d33cf7e1bf991ba800ae002f59f
Above 6%
polymarket · 0xa7abe7ea40a00434c712a8e164a9fd0b2337110659ae1fe7333698d95ef2d657
Above 8%
polymarket · 0x04a83249c976c072e7795b7a00e35ff42ab4c68cf55455ce14d61c2025ff4ddd
Above 10%
polymarket · 0x024418fa74e0a95fe9102b5681b73fdc18b7729edbb6550f6322845084c74fea
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.