Exactly 4 · How many awards will Beef win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly
Exactly 4 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside How many awards will Beef win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly.
Price history
15¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Beef has won exactly 4 awards at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Exactly 4
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Exactly 3 18¢
Range
1¢-18¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-4
Sep 2, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$421
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · How many awards will Beef win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Beef has won exactly 4 awards at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-4
Event family
How many awards will Beef win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Exactly 3 18¢
Current share
23%
Exactly 3
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-3
Exactly 6
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-6
Exactly 5
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-5
Exactly 4
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-4
Exactly 2
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-2
Exactly 11
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-11
Exactly 9
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-9
Exactly 7
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-7
Exactly 1
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-1
Exactly 8
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-8
Exactly 10
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-10
Exactly 12
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-12
Exactly 13
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-13
Exactly 14
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-14
Exactly 15
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-15
Exactly 16
kalshi · KXEMMYCOUNT-26BEE-16
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 15% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.