Above 11 · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1
Above 11 is priced at 77¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1.
Price history
77¢ current
+52¢Contract brief
If SpaceX has more than 11 launches in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 11
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
Above 10 96¢
Range
1¢-96¢
Family volume
$55K
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-11
May 24, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
12¢
24h volume
$10K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$55K
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX has more than 11 launches in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-11
Event family
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$55K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 10 96¢
Current share
18%
Above 10
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-10
Above 11
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-11
Above 12
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12
Above 13
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13
Above 14
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-14
Above 15
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-15
Above 18
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-18
Above 16
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-16
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders
Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
How to Scan Prediction Market Orderbooks: Spread, Depth, and Liquidity Analysis
Practical guide to analyzing orderbook data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Learn spread, depth, liquidity scoring, and executable edge calculation.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 77% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.