Exactly 4.5% · Unemployment rate in May 2026?: Exactly
Exactly 4.5% is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Unemployment rate in May 2026?: Exactly.
Price history
13¢ current
Contract brief
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.5% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Exactly 4.5%
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Exactly 4.3% 34¢
Range
1¢-34¢
Family volume
$49
Identifier
KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.5
May 23, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$18
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · Unemployment rate in May 2026?: Exactly
Closes
Jun 5, 2026
Family volume
$49
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.5% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 5, 2026
Identifier
KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.5
Event family
Unemployment rate in May 2026?: Exactly.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$49
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Exactly 4.3% 34¢
Current share
36%
Exactly 4.3%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.3
Exactly 4.4%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.4
Exactly 4.2%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.2
Exactly 4.5%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.5
Exactly 4.6%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.6
Exactly 3.4%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T3.4
Exactly 3.8%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T3.8
Exactly 3.9%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T3.9
Exactly 4.1%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.1
Exactly 4.0%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.0
Exactly 4.7%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.7
Exactly 4.8%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.8
Exactly 4.9%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T4.9
Exactly 5.0%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T5.0
Exactly 5.1%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T5.1
Exactly 5.2%
kalshi · KXECONSTATU3-26MAY-T5.2
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.