June 15 · US x Iran permanent peace deal by
June 15 is priced at 40¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 41¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?.
Price history
40¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
June 15
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
December 31 77¢
Range
11¢-77¢
Family volume
$81.6M
Identifier
0xd86a8160...5423
May 24, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
41¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$636K
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
Family volume
$81.6M
Orderbook snapshot
41 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
Identifier
0xd86a8160…5423
Event family
US x Iran permanent peace deal by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$81.6M
Outcomes
7
Highest price
December 31 77¢
Current share
3%
December 31
polymarket · 0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11895e6064bac471d8fd8f930b260cf581b68d3f58630d27
July 31
polymarket · 0x20af55ab35186377b81219db6cb8615240cba42cea41731091be9484a5f5b122
June 30
polymarket · 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7
June 15
polymarket · 0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423
June 7
polymarket · 0x366f89649caea042c96ee741b185461ec7faa408a2664ec44469a0061924b537
May 31
polymarket · 0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089
May 26
polymarket · 0x421bc1929df1429cf2cb94f80c1ce6a3ed0d1f0b7a2749b9890075f94eb549e9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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