Bitcoin · What will Trump say in May
Bitcoin is priced at 20¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 28¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside What will Trump say in May?.
Price history
20¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Outcome
Bitcoin
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Favorite Chart 43¢
Range
4¢-43¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
0x4c9f02ab...6d4b
May 24, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
28¢
Reported volume
$900
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Trump say in May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x4c9f02ab…6d4b
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 4¢, +16¢ versus this page.
Event family
What will Trump say in May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Favorite Chart 43¢
Current share
8%
Favorite Chart
polymarket · 0xfb8a80e6a08cd0ef6bc41cd832b45cac94171da998620218dd594f7c4d405e37
America Last
polymarket · 0xa007fdf5551e16a4f22b084146bbfd5ce58af3bb1af2869ff14fc7a5065db55d
Nuke
polymarket · 0xd17239d94f2af2f6bda410d56c82ca651851c6fd8360359d2021bf665a63cc52
Cat
polymarket · 0xf867694a419cd8ef9c8633c4dcc39df8f3aa0ae953c973408596408922492e80
Iwo Jima
polymarket · 0x5957671fa6d0cb7e71bb3cebd0715a73872210b02baad4ddf11a6b601f532fbf
Asshole
polymarket · 0x7cb5a1fa16179792b29c30bfda0c75fcdada2750e1942c821ad8cfdd7f7c930b
Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer
polymarket · 0xaf25ac07d103857daa07a2545578978f5927d0d93d185f7620c0184080c017c6
Bitcoin
polymarket · 0x4c9f02ab9dbced0fae73a56ef51d9bd60894afbc0250790997ffb32562dc6d4b
Braggadocious
polymarket · 0x12ee56fddc580c8b35058e5b1b466c53c1c34554d1dac209b11a12ad2bae0d37
Golden Dome
polymarket · 0x682d9f1f32aaf02f49152a418b3d6f760cc1bbc715a94395da902a82e5140865
Prediction Market
polymarket · 0xab997db257c2ba058fde98f3022b9d24ecba96cc658a11b81c425b27e3720094
Neville / Chamberlain
polymarket · 0x49088a21f034788c5c53a9302d87ebd55548b53a59cdb1af88f42f4b25c12c65
Epstein
polymarket · 0x1370bc457e501465c15c52e4c6037472142e06671e71fcf6e5c8c432e34c8521
Discombobulator / Discombobulated
polymarket · 0xb5e5eb3a7bb9a0b66cfef919fb5322d34c155e1d49719134596300d6817061d3
Barack Hussein Obamacare
polymarket · 0x9a6e40b9ded8f3b71d84bb6d09bfa7f0e0f7f3e00c445a90f2f842b9857db744
Darth Vader
polymarket · 0x659e535b62ce1ad84ab93739708a922a26e189c5e9a44b823233b8170704e63e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.