SimpleFunctions

↑ $115 · What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026

↑ $115 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?.

Price history

5¢ current

41¢
0¢25¢50¢
May 18, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Outcome

↑ $115

Rank

#6 of 16

Leader

↓ $90 68¢

Range

0¢-68¢

Family volume

$23.6M

Identifier

0xdeb0a6ab...9c0b

May 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 10m ago

Implied probability

5¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 10m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$101K

Family rank

#6 of 16

16 outcomes · What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Family volume

$23.6M

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 8¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
7¢18
6¢1.8K
6¢2.2K
6¢600
6¢600
6¢340
6¢182
6¢90
AskSize
8¢1.0K
8¢851
8¢887
9¢1.1K
9¢1.0K
9¢705
10¢3.6K
10¢1.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

0xdeb0a6ab…9c0b

SF Signal
SF Index
65806.56
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 47¢, -42¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$23.6M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $90 68¢

Current share

6%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $90

polymarket · 0x96d62023398788f44afff65cd3513eddc9bdb0fddaaf15206212f076721167a7

68¢
$675K$116K0.0

↓ $85

polymarket · 0x59a37ea3830d532957b04d3c437a329e14a5dc840096d48c7ee4b55ba3d9cca8

44¢
$896K$91K0.0

↑ $105

polymarket · 0x4788c5625061cf39da5265dec7d29103d5c8adf774d49b1ffae9025c4563dc9a

25¢
$81K$65K0.1

↓ $80

polymarket · 0xa96e71186507bf493bd1fb8101418c369c6296a29b49514fdec3f7bfe7197909

19¢
$962K$108K0.0

↑ $110

polymarket · 0x4bab360a81b57047b48c0dd7c6c1377706129e3e6b9fa3f079cc28d310ec4cec

16¢
$3.5M$274K0.1

↑ $115

polymarket · 0xdeb0a6abf730d613190d1b49e64bbedb2af0cc14f8a6f87e8da9282e64c29c0b

8¢
$1.4M$104K0.0

↑ $120

polymarket · 0x416e3cbe25a60b8210f4e67c056ea2b03f4d511e7b969826d69ef90b753ff214

4¢
$2.5M$261K0.0

↓ $70

polymarket · 0x4f7f1f84cc0497e3f21b76628b6ed9ac9abab9893b6d23f1af6108db64c0d34c

3¢
$1.1M$52K0.0

↑ $130

polymarket · 0x828aaec481308550a867fff3bd1e497ca1ebb5998fcf1fb40aaa4abfeb85db26

2¢
$2.8M$338K

↑ $150

polymarket · 0x1591b72dc504383d8fa2024e72a585c520b3c673614100d2e167507485e17e38

1¢
$3.5M$147K

↑ $140

polymarket · 0xd86177011df25e467bdfa1c25481edaf1006e88da184965173e03c8d1cc4f2d6

1¢
$2.2M$83K

↓ $60

polymarket · 0x8b0a049df1acdbb9df107f826f0b9e49c25de067be4086cdaab2a844dffcc38f

1¢
$501K$29K

↑ $200

polymarket · 0x0220e320852050a884e73bfe20447cbabe17ce934107cebc48a829b4a558204f

0¢
$2.8M$65K

↓ $40

polymarket · 0xd22fc2cfc3f2796842baeba8fcb1ff6a0a469118a2f6599e0c09c591836c04a6

0¢
$283K$2K

↓ $20

polymarket · 0xe49f349793edda9b05753be5256eeaa70bc4ef67f5579fe8ac16493dbc642901

0¢
$267K$11K

↓ $30

polymarket · 0x23ae45193d9f3719f63e7630ad0767a9a2ef92c9f7c9dd9398d3d359c7632a69

0¢
$81K$4K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

65806.6%

IY (No)

372.8%

Adj IY

65807%

CRI

13

RV

1663%

VR

0.80

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

65806.6%
372.8%
Adj IY
65807%
13
RV
1663%
VR
0.80
IAR
1.1/h
Overround
0.9%
LAS
0.00

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.