SimpleFunctions

↓ $85 · What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026

↓ $85 is priced at 61¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 41¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?.

Price history

61¢ current

+47¢
25¢50¢75¢
May 18, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Outcome

↓ $85

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

↓ $90 73¢

Range

0¢-73¢

Family volume

$23.7M

Identifier

0x59a37ea3...cca8

May 24, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 22m ago

Implied probability

61¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 22m ago

Bid

41¢

Ask

47¢

Spread

24h volume

$91K

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Family volume

$23.7M

Orderbook snapshot

41 / 47¢

Polymarket
6¢ spread
BidSize
41¢5
40¢18
39¢21
38¢38
37¢13
36¢15
35¢144
34¢288
AskSize
47¢38
48¢192
49¢1.0K
54¢452
55¢380
56¢610
57¢1.0K
59¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

0x59a37ea3…cca8

SF Signal
SF Index
5174.10
Regime
neutral

Event family

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$23.7M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $90 73¢

Current share

4%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $90

polymarket · 0x96d62023398788f44afff65cd3513eddc9bdb0fddaaf15206212f076721167a7

73¢
$677K$114K0.0

↓ $85

polymarket · 0x59a37ea3830d532957b04d3c437a329e14a5dc840096d48c7ee4b55ba3d9cca8

50¢
$898K$91K0.0

↓ $80

polymarket · 0xa96e71186507bf493bd1fb8101418c369c6296a29b49514fdec3f7bfe7197909

21¢
$964K$108K0.0

↑ $105

polymarket · 0x4788c5625061cf39da5265dec7d29103d5c8adf774d49b1ffae9025c4563dc9a

21¢
$81K$65K0.1

↑ $110

polymarket · 0x4bab360a81b57047b48c0dd7c6c1377706129e3e6b9fa3f079cc28d310ec4cec

10¢
$3.5M$273K0.1

↑ $115

polymarket · 0xdeb0a6abf730d613190d1b49e64bbedb2af0cc14f8a6f87e8da9282e64c29c0b

7¢
$1.4M$103K0.1

↑ $120

polymarket · 0x416e3cbe25a60b8210f4e67c056ea2b03f4d511e7b969826d69ef90b753ff214

4¢
$2.5M$216K0.0

↓ $70

polymarket · 0x4f7f1f84cc0497e3f21b76628b6ed9ac9abab9893b6d23f1af6108db64c0d34c

3¢
$1.1M$54K0.0

↑ $130

polymarket · 0x828aaec481308550a867fff3bd1e497ca1ebb5998fcf1fb40aaa4abfeb85db26

2¢
$2.8M$318K

↑ $150

polymarket · 0x1591b72dc504383d8fa2024e72a585c520b3c673614100d2e167507485e17e38

1¢
$3.5M$148K

↑ $140

polymarket · 0xd86177011df25e467bdfa1c25481edaf1006e88da184965173e03c8d1cc4f2d6

1¢
$2.2M$82K

↓ $60

polymarket · 0x8b0a049df1acdbb9df107f826f0b9e49c25de067be4086cdaab2a844dffcc38f

1¢
$501K$28K

↑ $200

polymarket · 0x0220e320852050a884e73bfe20447cbabe17ce934107cebc48a829b4a558204f

0¢
$2.8M$66K

↓ $40

polymarket · 0xd22fc2cfc3f2796842baeba8fcb1ff6a0a469118a2f6599e0c09c591836c04a6

0¢
$283K$2K

↓ $20

polymarket · 0xe49f349793edda9b05753be5256eeaa70bc4ef67f5579fe8ac16493dbc642901

0¢
$267K$11K

↓ $30

polymarket · 0x23ae45193d9f3719f63e7630ad0767a9a2ef92c9f7c9dd9398d3d359c7632a69

0¢
$81K$4K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4585.2%

IY (No)

5381.3%

Adj IY

5174%

CRI

1

RV

1182%

VR

1.61

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4585.2%
5381.3%
Adj IY
5174%
1
RV
1182%
VR
1.61
IAR
1.9/h
Overround
0.9%
LAS
0.04

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract

When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.

Blogmacro

Petrodollar System in 2026: BRICS Oil Trading, Yuan, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

Deep dive on the petrodollar system in 2026, BRICS oil trading and yuan contracts, and what prediction markets are pricing for dollar dominance by 2030.

Conceptmethodology

The Settlement Halo: Microstructure Changes in the Final 24 Hours

How spreads, volume, and maker behavior change in the 24 hours before a prediction market resolves, why it happens, and three trading implications.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Conceptmethodology

Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes

When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.

Blogmacro

Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In

In-depth analysis of Venezuela oil production and PDVSA through 2026, U.S. sanctions and Chevron licenses, China/Russia oil-for-loans, infrastructure constraints, and how prediction markets are pricing future Venezuelan supply.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.