Which countries will have recessions
India is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Which countries will have recessions.
Price history
9¢ current
Contract brief
If India has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
India
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
United Kingdom 36¢
Range
2¢-36¢
Family volume
$261
Identifier
WRECSS-26-IN
Jun 6, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$124
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Which countries will have recessions
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$261
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If India has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
WRECSS-26-IN
Event family
Which countries will have recessions.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$261
Outcomes
4
Highest price
United Kingdom 36¢
Current share
47%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.