Average gas prices above $4.30
Above 4.30 is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 95¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Will average gas prices be above $.
Price history
94¢ current
+44¢Contract brief
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.30 on May 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.30
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Above 4.10 98¢
Range
1¢-98¢
Family volume
$123K
Identifier
KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.30
May 24, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$31K
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · Will average gas prices be above $
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$123K
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 95¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.30 on May 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.30
Event family
Will average gas prices be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$123K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Above 4.10 98¢
Current share
25%
Above 4.10
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.10
Above 3.80
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-3.80
Above 4.00
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.00
Above 4.20
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.20
Above 4.30
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.30
Above 4.40
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.40
Above 4.45
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.45
Above 4.50
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.50
Above 4.55
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.55
Above 4.60
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.60
Above 4.80
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.80
Above 4.70
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.70
Above 4.90
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.90
Above 4.65
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.65
Above 5.50
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-5.50
Above 5.00
kalshi · KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-5.00
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 94% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.