Average gas prices above $4.500
Above 4.500 is priced at 80¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Will average gas prices be above $4.
Price history
80¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.500 on May 25, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.500
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Above 4.480 98¢
Range
1¢-98¢
Family volume
$264K
Identifier
KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.500
May 24, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
80¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$23K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Will average gas prices be above $4
Closes
May 25, 2026
Family volume
$264K
Orderbook snapshot
80 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.500 on May 25, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 25, 2026
Identifier
KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.500
Event family
Will average gas prices be above $4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$264K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Above 4.480 98¢
Current share
9%
Above 4.480
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.480
Above 4.460
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.460
Above 4.500
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.500
Above 4.510
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.510
Above 4.520
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.520
Above 4.620
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.620
Above 4.540
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.540
Above 4.570
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.570
Above 4.580
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.580
Above 4.600
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.600
Above 4.680
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.680
Above 4.550
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.550
Above 4.530
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.530
Above 4.560
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.560
Above 4.720
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.720
Above 4.740
kalshi · KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.740
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.