Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $250000 starting 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$649K
Identifier
KXBTC2026250-27JAN01-250000
May 24, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$421
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$649K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $250000 starting 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBTC2026250-27JAN01-250000
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$649K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET 4¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.427
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.