Nicholas Hoult · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Nicholas Hoult is priced at 23¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
Price history
23¢ current
+17¢Contract brief
If Nicholas Hoult is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Nicholas Hoult
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
Charles Melton 53¢
Range
9¢-53¢
Family volume
$273
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-NIC
Sep 1, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$273
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Nicholas Hoult is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-NIC
Event family
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$273
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Charles Melton 53¢
Current share
0%
Charles Melton
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-CHA
Hugh Jackman
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUG
Jesse Plemons
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JES
Hunter Schafer
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUN
Harris Dickinson
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HAR
James McAvoy
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JAM
Colman Domingo
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-COL
Ian McKellen
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-IAN
Jacob Elordi
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JAC
Nicholas Hoult
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-NIC
Austin Butler
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AUS
Denzel Washington
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DEN
Evan Peters
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-EVA
Glen Powell
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-GLE
Daniel Radcliffe
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DAN
Ayo Edebiri
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AYO
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.