Outright Winner · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP
Outright Winner is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP.
Price history
18¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If Spain wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Outright Winner
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
Round of 16 18¢
Range
1¢-18¢
Family volume
$597
Identifier
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-FW
May 24, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$556
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
Family volume
$597
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Spain wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-FW
Event family
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$597
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Round of 16 18¢
Current share
93%
Round of 16
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-R16
Quarterfinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-QF
Outright Winner
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-FW
Semifinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-SF
Round of 32
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-R32
Runner-Up
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-FL
Group Stage
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ESP-GS
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.