Tate McRae · KX1SONG-DEC2626
Tate McRae is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KX1SONG-DEC2626.
Price history
27¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If Tate McRae has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Tate McRae
Rank
#9 of 16
Leader
Drake 98¢
Range
2¢-98¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KX1SONG-DEC2626-TAT
May 24, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
13¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
#9 of 16
16 outcomes · KX1SONG-DEC2626
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 27¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tate McRae has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
Identifier
KX1SONG-DEC2626-TAT
Event family
KX1SONG-DEC2626.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Drake 98¢
Current share
0%
Drake
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-DRA
Mariah Carey
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-MAR
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-ARI
Beyoncé
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-BEY
Post Malone
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-POS
Morgan Wallen
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-MOR
Travis Scott
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-TRA
The Weeknd
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE
Don Toliver
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-DON
Justin Bieber
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-JUS
Tate McRae
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-TAT
Luke Combs
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-LUK
Dua Lipa
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-CUA
Chris Brown
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-CHR
Ed Sheeran
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-ED
Eminem
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-EMI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.