Rate of CPI inflation above 4.2% for the year ending in May 2026
Above 4.2% is priced at 71¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 67¢ bid, 68¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside Will the rate of CPI inflation be above.
Price history
71¢ current
+21¢Contract brief
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.2% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.2%
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Above 2.4% 99¢
Range
2¢-99¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.2
May 24, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
67¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the rate of CPI inflation be above
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
67 / 68¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.2% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Identifier
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.2
Event family
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Above 2.4% 99¢
Current share
36%
Above 2.4%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.4
Above 2.6%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.6
Above 2.7%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.7
Above 3.9%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9
Above 2.5%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.5
Above 3.1%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.1
Above 4.0%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0
Above 2.8%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.8
Above 2.9%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.9
Above 3.0%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.0
Above 4.1%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.1
Above 4.2%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.2
Above 4.3%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.3
Above 4.4%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.4
Above 4.7%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.7
Above 4.5%
kalshi · KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.