Out before Jan 1, 2028 · Will Thomas Tuchel be out before J
Out before Jan 1, 2028 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 32¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will Thomas Tuchel be out before J.
Price history
15¢ current
−25¢Contract brief
If Thomas Tuchel ceases to be the manager of England National Football Team before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Out before Jan 1, 2028
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Out before Jun 1, 2028 45¢
Range
3¢-45¢
Family volume
$8
Identifier
KXMANAGEROUTDATE-28TUCHEL-28JAN01
Aug 16, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
32¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Thomas Tuchel be out before J
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$8
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Thomas Tuchel ceases to be the manager of England National Football Team before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXMANAGEROUTDATE-28TUCHEL-28JAN01
Event family
Will Thomas Tuchel be out before J.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Out before Jun 1, 2028 45¢
Current share
0%
Out before Jun 1, 2028
kalshi · KXMANAGEROUTDATE-28TUCHEL-28JUN01
Out before Jul 10, 2028
kalshi · KXMANAGEROUTDATE-28TUCHEL-28JUL10
Out before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXMANAGEROUTDATE-28TUCHEL-28JAN01
Out before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXMANAGEROUTDATE-28TUCHEL-27JAN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.