May 27 · Will Trump publicly insult someone on
May 27 is priced at 92¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 91¢ bid, 93¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?.
Price history
92¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
May 27
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
May 27 93¢
Range
91¢-93¢
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
0x74b6a639...5276
May 24, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
91¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$126
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
91 / 93¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x74b6a639…5276
Event family
Will Trump publicly insult someone on.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
May 27 93¢
Current share
7%
May 25
polymarket · 0x73172d27439422ab7d3575a6f04f53ff26eab39761a1dd1c78751e09f56fcdc7
May 27
polymarket · 0x74b6a639f8b15aa4c5b4cf1c1e353cea32293de30f327ea8b0f3f53209505276
May 30
polymarket · 0x9e3d66e0123602a25bf937da55caa0f7092899cdbd5ba08f777b0e8b97670b12
May 26
polymarket · 0x930cbe0d958f1c39ee130de7cb7f7543b37036573ac392e7269d146a7e9c6c1f
May 28
polymarket · 0x7545551fcc53c7e8737f0de307d243eb440d5a0d436e0addb3b066cccf3fb09f
May 24
polymarket · 0x8ecef5c7294c61ca15ffd49c8d8ce104d1bc7c336bb8f353c0e6249c7d52e3ca
May 31
polymarket · 0xfadb23907953ad51732a6c23e9e161b42650427e8cdce8b4218848ca6584d2ca
May 29
polymarket · 0xc12f336bfc3dd24975e0a9b0917f772aa804987ded738e1a14cec374906bd395
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.