May 31 · Will Trump publicly insult someone on
May 31 is priced at 91¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 90¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 8 inside Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?.
Price history
91¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
May 31
Rank
#4 of 8
Leader
May 25 93¢
Range
90¢-93¢
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
0xfadb2390...d2ca
May 24, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
90¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$807
Family rank
#4 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
90 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xfadb2390…d2ca
Event family
Will Trump publicly insult someone on.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
May 25 93¢
Current share
4%
May 25
polymarket · 0x73172d27439422ab7d3575a6f04f53ff26eab39761a1dd1c78751e09f56fcdc7
May 30
polymarket · 0x9e3d66e0123602a25bf937da55caa0f7092899cdbd5ba08f777b0e8b97670b12
May 27
polymarket · 0x74b6a639f8b15aa4c5b4cf1c1e353cea32293de30f327ea8b0f3f53209505276
May 26
polymarket · 0x930cbe0d958f1c39ee130de7cb7f7543b37036573ac392e7269d146a7e9c6c1f
May 28
polymarket · 0x7545551fcc53c7e8737f0de307d243eb440d5a0d436e0addb3b066cccf3fb09f
May 31
polymarket · 0xfadb23907953ad51732a6c23e9e161b42650427e8cdce8b4218848ca6584d2ca
May 29
polymarket · 0xc12f336bfc3dd24975e0a9b0917f772aa804987ded738e1a14cec374906bd395
May 24
polymarket · 0x8ecef5c7294c61ca15ffd49c8d8ce104d1bc7c336bb8f353c0e6249c7d52e3ca
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
How Trump’s 2026 foreign policy toward Latin America and Venezuela is reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and military risk—and what prediction markets are pricing in.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 91% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.