Golden Dome · Will Trump say "
Golden Dome is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
7¢ current
Contract brief
If Golden Dome, or a plural or possessive form of Golden Dome, is stated by Donald Trump after May 18th at 8:00am ET and before May 25, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Golden Dome
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$761K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-GOLD
May 24, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$10K
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
May 25, 2026
Family volume
$761K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Golden Dome, or a plural or possessive form of Golden Dome, is stated by Donald Trump after May 18th at 8:00am ET and before May 25, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 25, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-GOLD
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 20¢, -13¢ versus this page.
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$761K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome 99¢
Current share
1%
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-TDS
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-HOTT
Rigged Election / Stolen Election
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-RIGG
Warsh
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-WARS
Bibi / Netanyahu
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-BIBI
Uranium
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-URAN
Newscum
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-NEWS
Who are you with / Where are you from
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-WHO
Stupid Question
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-STUP
Golden Dome
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-GOLD
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-CRYP
Drill Baby Drill
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-DRIL
Epstein
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-EPST
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-MARI
Prediction Market / Predictive Market
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-PRED
Mog / Mogged / Mogging
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-MOG
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.