Prediction Market / Predictive Market · Will Trump say "
Prediction Market / Predictive Market is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
1¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Prediction Market / Predictive Market, or a plural or possessive form of Prediction Market / Predictive Market, is stated by Donald Trump after May 18th at 8:00am ET and before May 25, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Prediction Market / Predictive Market
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$785K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-PRED
May 24, 2026, 11:44 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
May 25, 2026
Family volume
$785K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Prediction Market / Predictive Market, or a plural or possessive form of Prediction Market / Predictive Market, is stated by Donald Trump after May 18th at 8:00am ET and before May 25, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 25, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-PRED
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 14¢, -13¢ versus this page.
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$785K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome 99¢
Current share
1%
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-TDS
Rigged Election / Stolen Election
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-RIGG
Warsh
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-WARS
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-HOTT
Bibi / Netanyahu
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-BIBI
Uranium
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-URAN
Newscum
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-NEWS
Drill Baby Drill
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-DRIL
Who are you with / Where are you from
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-WHO
Stupid Question
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-STUP
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-CRYP
Golden Dome
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-GOLD
Mog / Mogged / Mogging
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-MOG
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-MARI
Epstein
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-EPST
Prediction Market / Predictive Market
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-PRED
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.