# Will Roddy Ricch have a top 10 song this year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 18 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/10song
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.018Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-26

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $34

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gracie Abrams | 50¢ | −2pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-gracie-abrams-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-gr-kalshi-kx10song-26-gra |
| Charli xcx | 20¢ | +5pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-charli-xcx-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-charl-kalshi-kx10song-26-xcx |
| KATSEYE | 24¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-katseye-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-katseye-kalshi-kx10song-26-kat |
| Kanye West / Ye | 16¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-kanye-west-ye-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-ka-kalshi-kx10song-26-kan |
| Chris Brown | 28¢ | +3pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-brown-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-chri-kalshi-kx10song-26-chr |
| Rihanna | 11¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-rihanna-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-rihanna-kalshi-kx10song-26-rih |
| Nicki Minaj | 25¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicki-minaj-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-nick-kalshi-kx10song-26-nic |
| Drake | 97¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-drake-kalshi-kx10song-26-dra |
| The Weeknd | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-the-w-kalshi-kx10song-26-wee |
| Ariana Grande | 97¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-ar-kalshi-kx10song-26-ari |
| Ed Sheeran | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-sheeran-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-ed-sh-kalshi-kx10song-26-ed |
| Travis Scott | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-tra-kalshi-kx10song-26-tra |
| Eminem | 4¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eminem-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-eminem-kalshi-kx10song-26-emi |
| Billie Eilish | 53¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-bi-kalshi-kx10song-26-bil |
| Kendrick Lamar | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-k-kalshi-kx10song-26-ken |
| Post Malone | 78¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-post-malone-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-post-kalshi-kx10song-26-pos |
| J Balvin | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-j-balvin-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-j-balvi-kalshi-kx10song-26-jba |
| Future | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-future-have-a-top-10-song-this-year-future-kalshi-kx10song-26-fut |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 |
| 2026-04-25 | 63 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 36 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Charli xcx +5pp 15→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Roddy Ricch will chart a song in the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 at some point during 2026. At 14%, the market is pricing in a relatively low likelihood, reflecting his reduced mainstream presence compared to his 2018-2020 peak when he charted multiple hits including "The Box." The main factors driving this assessment are his recent release frequency and chart performance trajectory. Roddy Ricch would need to either release new music that gains significant streaming and radio traction, or experience an unexpected viral moment. The primary uncertainty resolves throughout the year as new music releases occur and chart data accumulates; there is no single scheduled event, but new singles or features would be the key catalysts that could shift this probability materially higher or lower.

### Key factors

- Roddy Ricch has not charted a top 10 solo song since 2020, suggesting diminished commercial momentum compared to his earlier career peak
- His last major charting success was "The Box" in 2019-2020; current market probability is lower than comparable artists like J. Cole (19¢) and Chris Brown (28¢)
- New music releases or high-profile features remain the primary mechanism to achieve top 10 status, with streaming numbers and radio adoption as measurable indicators
- Chart performance in Q2-Q4 2026 will directly determine outcome; the 14% probability implies markets view a top 10 hit as unlikely absent major new release activity
- Comparable artists show variable probabilities (9¢ to 28¢), indicating market uncertainty about which established artists will break through in 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/10song
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=10song

## License

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