# Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 60bps

> Above -30bps leads at 93%, runner-up 92% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/10y2ydate
Updated: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.461Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above -30bps at 93%
- Runner-up: Above -20bps at 92%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $47

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -30bps | 93¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t-30 |
| Above -20bps | 92¢ | +22pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t-20 |
| Above -10bps | 88¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t-10 |
| Above 0bps | 86¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t0 |
| Above 10bps | 76¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t10 |
| Above 20bps | 66¢ | — | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t20 |
| Above 30bps | 55¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t30 |
| Above 40bps | 43¢ | — | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t40 |
| Above 50bps | 33¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t50 |
| Above 60bps | 21¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t60 |
| Above 70bps | 12¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daily-10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minu-kalshi-kx10y2ydate-26dec31-t70 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -30bps | Above -20bps | Above -10bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 79 | 71 | 86 |
| 2026-07-09 | 94 | 93 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Above -20bps +22pp 71→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above -30bps +15pp 79→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above 60bps −11pp 19→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above 70bps +4pp 14→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question tracks whether the gap between longer-term and shorter-term Treasury yields will exceed 60 basis points on the last trading day of 2026. At 72% probability, markets estimate this is likely to occur. The yield curve's steepness depends primarily on Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation dynamics through year-end. If markets price in rate cuts or economic weakness, the 10-2 spread typically widens; if growth concerns ease or inflation remains sticky, the curve may flatten. The resolution depends entirely on Treasury pricing on December 31, 2026, with no intermediate catalysts—the spread will be what it will be on that specific date. Current market pricing reflects expectations that normal yield-curve relationships will prevail rather than remaining inverted or severely flattened.

### Key factors

- Current 10-2 spread is approximately -8 to 0 basis points; it must move steeper by 60+ bps in 5.5 months, a significant move from near-flat or inverted levels
- Fed policy trajectory through 2026: expectations of rate cuts or unchanged rates would support curve steepening, while further tightening would compress the spread
- Inflation data and growth indicators released before December 31 will drive whether market participants expect economic slowdown (steepens curve) or sustained strength (flattens curve)
- Historical 10-2 spreads exceed 60 bps during normal economic conditions but remain compressed during recessions or tightening cycles; current environment suggests recession-like inversion
- December 31, 2026 is the sole resolution date with no intermediate measurement; all uncertainty collapses on that specific Treasury closing print

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/10y2ydate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=10y2ydate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.