# Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Jan 1, 2027

> 5.02% or above leads at 93%, runner-up 89% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/10yrdirhm
Updated: 2026-09-20T15:20:49.714Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 5.02% or above at 93%
- Runner-up: 5.03% or above at 89%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.02% or above | 93¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-501-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.01 |
| 5.03% or above | 89¢ | +2pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-502-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.02 |
| 5.04% or above | 87¢ | — | $281 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-503-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.03 |
| 5.05% or above | 79¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-504-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.04 |
| 5.06% or above | 77¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-505-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.05 |
| 5.07% or above | 74¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-506-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.06 |
| 5.08% or above | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-507-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.07 |
| 5.09% or above | 73¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-508-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.08 |
| 5.1% or above | 72¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-509-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.09 |
| 5.11% or above | 68¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-510-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.10 |
| 5.12% or above | 59¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-511-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.11 |
| 5.13% or above | 57¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-512-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.12 |
| 5.14% or above | 55¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-513-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.13 |
| 5.15% or above | 54¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-514-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.14 |
| 5.16% or above | 51¢ | −3pp | $216 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-515-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.15 |
| 5.2% or above | 47¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-519-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.19 |
| 5.24% or above | 43¢ | ±0 | $440 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-523-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.23 |
| 5.25% or above | 41¢ | +3pp | $847 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-524-by-jan-kalshi-kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 5.02% or above | 5.03% or above | 5.05% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 89 | 86 | 79 |
| 2026-09-19 | 93 | 88 | 78 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · 5.02% or above +4pp 89→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.12% or above −4pp 62→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.14% or above −4pp 57→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.25% or above +3pp 37→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.16% or above −3pp 53→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 93% probability reflects market expectation that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.99% on January 1, 2027—roughly 3.5 months away. The high probability suggests traders believe current yield levels, shaped by Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts, are unlikely to fall below this threshold before year-end. Key drivers include upcoming inflation data releases and Fed communications that could signal rate-path expectations. The contract series shows declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (89% at 5.01%, 86% at 5.02%), indicating markets price in modest upside risk but consider significant further increases less likely. Resolution depends on macroeconomic conditions through December, particularly labor-market data and inflation readings that traditionally influence bond yields.

### Key factors

- Current 10Y yield levels are near or above 4.99%, making a sustained drop below this threshold the primary price movement required to resolve 'No'
- Fed policy expectations and inflation outlook through Q4 2026 will heavily influence yield trajectories; any surprise tightening or deflation signals could pressure yields downward
- The probability gradient across contracts (93% at 4.99% down to 86% at 5.02%) suggests market uncertainty is concentrated in the 4.99–5.03% range rather than at extremes
- Monthly employment and CPI releases between September and December 2026 will be the most direct catalysts for yield re-pricing
- Bond market liquidity and demand from foreign central banks near year-end could amplify or dampen yield volatility independent of fundamental data

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/10yrdirhm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=10yrdirhm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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