# Will NF have a #1 hit this year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/1song
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.434Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-21

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $85

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana Grande | 85¢ | ±0 | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-a-1-hit-this-year-ariana-g-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-ari |
| Zara Larsson | 14¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-zara-larsson-have-a-1-hit-this-year-zara-lars-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-zar |
| Chris Brown | 8¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-brown-have-a-1-hit-this-year-chris-brow-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-chr |
| Drake | 81¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-have-a-1-hit-this-year-drake-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-dra |
| The Weeknd | 26¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-have-a-1-hit-this-year-the-weeknd-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-wee |
| Justin Bieber | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-bieber-have-a-1-hit-this-year-justin-b-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-jus |
| Ed Sheeran | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-sheeran-have-a-1-hit-this-year-ed-sheeran-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-ed |
| Travis Scott | 27¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-have-a-1-hit-this-year-travis-sc-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-tra |
| Kanye West / Ye | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kanye-west-ye-have-a-1-hit-this-year-kanye-we-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-kan |
| Rihanna | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rihanna-have-a-1-hit-this-year-rihanna-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-rih |
| Billie Eilish | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-have-a-1-hit-this-year-billie-e-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-bil |
| Kendrick Lamar | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-have-a-1-hit-this-year-kendric-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-ken |
| Post Malone | 44¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-post-malone-have-a-1-hit-this-year-post-malon-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-pos |
| J Balvin | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-j-balvin-have-a-1-hit-this-year-j-balvin-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-jba |
| Future | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-future-have-a-1-hit-this-year-future-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-fut |
| Coldplay | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coldplay-have-a-1-hit-this-year-coldplay-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-col |
| Nicki Minaj | 8¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicki-minaj-have-a-1-hit-this-year-nicki-mina-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-nic |
| Dua Lipa | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dua-lipa-have-a-1-hit-this-year-dua-lipa-kalshi-kx1song-dec2626-cua |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 |
| 2026-04-25 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 37 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Ariana Grande −7pp 84→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Travis Scott +6pp 20→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Ariana Grande +5pp 77→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Drake +5pp 75→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Travis Scott +5pp 18→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that rapper NF releases a track that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point during 2026. At 12%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not remote. NF's recent chart performance and release schedule are primary drivers—the artist has had moderate chart success but limited #1 placements historically. The main uncertainty hinges on whether NF plans a major single release in 2026 and whether any new material gains sufficient streaming and sales momentum to compete with higher-profile artists for chart dominance. The resolution depends on official Billboard Hot 100 rankings as they're published throughout the year.

### Key factors

- NF's most recent album release date and any announced 2026 singles or tour plans
- NF's historical Billboard Hot 100 chart performance, including peak positions and frequency of charting entries
- Competitive landscape: whether major label artists drop chart-dominating releases that would displace a potential NF single
- Current streaming volume and audience engagement metrics compared to artists with higher #1 probability estimates
- Definition clarity: whether the #1 refers specifically to the main Hot 100 chart or includes sub-charts, which affects resolution likelihood

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/1song
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=1song

## License

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