# 2025-26 Basketball Champions League

> Winner: AEK BC leads at 53%, runner-up 38% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/202526-basketball-champions-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.188Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: AEK BC at 53%
- Runner-up: Winner: Rytas Vilnius at 38%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: AEK BC | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2025-26-basketball-champions-league-winner-aek-bc-polymarket-0x51e4fa578c05aa94ea30ba3e448ddc872c924e0c32331cdf5ff053b92f7f4593 |
| Winner: Rytas Vilnius | 38¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2025-26-basketball-champions-league-winner-rytas-v-polymarket-0x681c555bdc3eaf1c824d1bd494c6b0e28b57792ea7cbddce66f298d435061691 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: AEK BC | Winner: Rytas Vilnius |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 49 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 50 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 31% probability reflects the combined odds that a specific team will win the 2025-26 Basketball Champions League based on current market positions. However, the contract listings show significant confusion: the top contract references UEFA's soccer competition (Atletico Madrid at 12¢), while subsequent contracts concern NBA basketball conferences rather than the European basketball championship. This mixing of sports creates ambiguity about what event is actually being priced. If the question intends the FIBA Basketball Champions League, European league performance through March-April 2026 will determine which teams advance to playoffs, with the championship final scheduled for May 2026. The 7-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi suggests traders disagree on fundamental probabilities, possibly reflecting different contract specifications or data interpretation.

### Key factors

- Contract specification mismatch: top listings reference soccer (UEFA Champions League) and NBA basketball rather than a unified Basketball Champions League, creating ambiguity about the actual underlying event
- Liquidity concentration: highest volume ($513k) is on a soccer contract, suggesting possible data aggregation error or mislabeling of the probability topic
- Venue gap of 7 percentage points indicates traders on different platforms assess probabilities differently, potentially due to unclear or conflicting contract terms
- Remaining season timeline: if pricing a European basketball championship with May 2026 finals, approximately 5-6 weeks remain for team performance to shift odds
- No dominant single contract: volume is dispersed across multiple contracts with inconsistent sports references, suggesting market confusion about the underlying event being predicted

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/202526-basketball-champions-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=202526-basketball-champions-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.