# Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028

> Gavin Newsom leads at 86%, runner-up 83% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2028drun
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:24.903Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Gavin Newsom at 86%
- Runner-up: Pete Buttigieg at 83%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 86¢ | −1pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-gnew |
| Pete Buttigieg | 83¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-pbut |
| Andy Beshear | 80¢ | +1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-abes |
| J.B. Pritzker | 79¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-jpri |
| Josh Shapiro | 78¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-jsha |
| Rahm Emanuel | 72¢ | +2pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-rema |
| Ro Khanna | 66¢ | −1pp | $281 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-rkha |
| Cory Booker | 66¢ | ±0 | $28 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-cbook |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-gwhi |
| Kamala Harris | 57¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-khar |
| Wes Moore | 54¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-wmoo |
| Ruben Gallego | 49¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-rgal |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 47¢ | ±0 | $33 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-aoc |
| Jon Ossoff | 41¢ | +1pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-joss |
| Phil Murphy | 30¢ | +1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-pmur |
| Stephen A. Smith | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-sas |
| John Fetterman | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-jfet |
| Mark Cuban | 22¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-mcub |
| Hunter Biden | 11¢ | +1pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-hbid |
| Michelle Obama | 7¢ | +1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-moba |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Gavin Newsom | Pete Buttigieg | Andy Beshear |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 78 |
| 2026-04-11 | 86 | 83 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | — | 82 | — |
| 2026-04-14 | — | 82 | — |
| 2026-04-19 | — | — | 78 |
| 2026-04-24 | 87 | — | 80 |
| 2026-04-26 | 86 | — | 79 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | 83 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 80 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Ruben Gallego +12pp 37→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Kamala Harris −6pp 61→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Ro Khanna +3pp 66→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Ro Khanna −3pp 69→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Mark Cuban −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects market expectations that Gavin Newsom will seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, currently priced at 86%. The high probability reflects Newsom's visibility as California's governor, his national profile, and minimal public indication he would decline to run. The probability could shift downward if Newsom withdraws from politics, faces significant legal or political setbacks, or announces intentions to pursue other offices. The main uncertainty stems from typical pre-campaign uncertainty—politicians frequently signal different intentions closer to actual nomination periods. Key catalysts include statements from Newsom himself regarding 2028, major developments in his governorship that could affect his viability, and consolidation patterns among other Democratic candidates that might influence his calculus about running.

### Key factors

- Newsom has maintained national political visibility through 2024-2026 without withdrawing from consideration for higher office
- The 83% runner-up probability indicates significant market uncertainty about who the second-most-likely candidate is, suggesting no consensus alternative has emerged
- Harris at 55¢ reflects incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris's potential candidacy, representing the highest individual alternative contract price
- No formal candidate announcements or explicit rejections from Newsom have been documented that would typically precede a significant probability shift
- Historical patterns show most sitting governors who maintain national profiles and avoid disqualifying events tend to enter presidential races in open primaries

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2028drun
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=2028drun
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.