# Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028

> J.D. Vance leads at 72%, runner-up 64% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2028rrun
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.348Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: J.D. Vance at 72%
- Runner-up: Marco Rubio at 64%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $43

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 72¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-jvan |
| Marco Rubio | 64¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-mrub |
| Ron DeSantis | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-rdes |
| Glenn Youngkin | 42¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-gyou |
| Rand Paul | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-rpau |
| Nikki Haley | 33¢ | ±0 | $25 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-nhal |
| Brian Kemp | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-bkem |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-djtjr |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-rfk |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 21¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-tgab |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-shs |
| Matt Gaetz | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-mgae |
| Greg Abbott | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-gabb |
| Byron Donalds | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-bdon |
| John McEntee | 11¢ | — | $17 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-jmce |
| Donald J. Trump | 11¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-djt |
| Elise Stefanik | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-este |
| Jared Kushner | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-jkus |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-vram |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | J.D. Vance | Marco Rubio | Ron DeSantis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 64 | 61 |
| 2026-05-12 | 78 | 64 | 54 |
| 2026-05-25 | 72 | 62 | 53 |
| 2026-05-31 | — | 64 | 58 |
| 2026-06-01 | — | — | 59 |
| 2026-06-03 | 72 | 64 | 56 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 64 | 55 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Ron DeSantis −4pp 59→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Donald J. Trump −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Tulsi Gabbard −3pp 24→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a specific individual will declare candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. At 51 cents, Tucker Carlson currently has the highest implied probability among tracked candidates, followed by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump Jr. at 29 cents each. The market's assessment depends on several observable factors: each candidate's public statements about 2028 ambitions, their current political positioning and media influence, organizational infrastructure development, and historical precedent for similar figures. The probability could shift significantly based on major political realignments, changes in candidate viability following 2026 midterm outcomes, or explicit public statements confirming or denying candidacy intentions. Resolution will occur when the 2028 Republican National Convention process formally begins and candidates officially declare their intentions, providing definitive confirmation of participation.

### Key factors

- Tucker Carlson's media platform and political profile give him higher name recognition than other tracked candidates, directly affecting his market pricing relative to less-established figures
- Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump Jr. each command 29-cent valuations despite different political constituencies, suggesting the market is uncertain about which Trump-aligned candidate might emerge
- 24-hour trading volume concentration ($54 on Carlson vs. $7-19 on other candidates) indicates asymmetric market interest, potentially reflecting either stronger conviction or limited price discovery on lower-volume contracts
- No candidate has unambiguously announced 2028 intentions as of May 2026, leaving significant uncertainty about who will actually participate in the nomination process
- The market is pricing specific individuals rather than likelihood of contested primary, suggesting differentiated assessments of each candidate's viability and intent

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2028rrun
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=2028rrun
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.