# Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 18 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/20song
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.473Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-29

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $63

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coldplay | 5¢ | — | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-coldplay-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-coldpla-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-col |
| Travis Scott | 45¢ | −1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-tra-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-tra |
| Fred again.. | 11¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-fred-again-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-fred-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-fre |
| ROSALÍA | 5¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-rosala-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-rosala-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-ros |
| Childish Gambino | 8¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-childish-gambino-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-chi |
| YoungBoy Never Broke Again | 7¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-youngboy-never-broke-again-have-a-top-20-song-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-you |
| Benson Boone | 14¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-benson-boone-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-ben-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-ben |
| Maroon 5 | 7¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-maroon-5-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-maroon-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-maro |
| Trippie Redd | 13¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-trippie-redd-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-tri-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-tri |
| David Guetta | 10¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-guetta-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-dav-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-dav |
| Ed Sheeran | 11¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-sheeran-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-ed-sh-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-ed |
| The Marías | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maras-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-the-ma-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-mari |
| The Weeknd | 64¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-the-w-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-wee |
| Eminem | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eminem-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-eminem-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-emi |
| Kanye West / Ye | 25¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kanye-west-ye-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-ka-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-kan |
| Rihanna | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rihanna-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-rihanna-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-rih |
| Billie Eilish | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-bi-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-bil |
| Kendrick Lamar | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-have-a-top-20-song-this-year-k-kalshi-kx20song-26dec26-ken |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 |
| 2026-04-25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 24 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · The Weeknd +3pp 61→64¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Billie Eilish releases or has a song that ranks in the top 20 on the Billboard Hot 100 or similar major chart during 2026. The 20% assessment suggests modest odds, indicating either a recent lack of commercial momentum or absence of confirmed upcoming releases. Key drivers include whether she has new music scheduled for release this year and how it performs against competition from other established artists. The main uncertainty resolver will be actual chart performance data as any new singles release and accumulate weeks on major charts. Current market activity shows significant interest in near-term streaming metrics, suggesting traders are monitoring short-term performance signals as proxies for longer-term commercial success.

### Key factors

- No confirmed major Billie Eilish single release or album announcement as of early May 2026 that would guarantee chart eligibility
- J. Cole and Nicki Minaj are priced higher (19¢ and 25¢) despite comparable market conditions, suggesting traders perceive stronger likelihood of output from those artists
- Streaming volume contracts for Eilish show 8-9¢ pricing for weekly targets around 232-237 million streams, indicating baseline audience activity but uncertainty about chart breakthrough
- Historical chart performance: artists require sustained commercial output and radio/streaming promotion to achieve top 20 placements in competitive market conditions
- Time remaining in 2026 (approximately 7-8 months) provides window for new releases, but lack of announcement suggests lower probability of near-term activity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/20song
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=20song

## License

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