# 2nd largest company end of April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 19 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2nd-largest-company-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:48.586Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 49% / Polymarket 36% — 13pp spread
- 24h volume: $85K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 21¢ | −1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-june-alphabet-polymarket-0x416242cc0757f9d4aefdfe86893cea90610b3d0928c60e09416e717db7e9f0f0 |
| NVIDIA | 77¢ | +4pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-june-nvidia-polymarket-0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95 |
| OpenAI | 6¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-openai-polymarket-0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7 |
| Alphabet | 38¢ | +7pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-alphabet-polymarket-0x39676b9161ea372b38115423a5de8f700f1888c35dd0fb2be07d96510ec28f7c |
| NVIDIA | 52¢ | −6pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-nvidia-polymarket-0x684e5b72d4e407695397a79ed75ef37273c2655ca2548791a4153233d3744696 |
| Google | 24¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-google-polymarket-0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4 |
| Anthropic | 68¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-anthro-polymarket-0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca |
| SpaceX | 3¢ | −1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-spacex-polymarket-0xa226daf1b12a3c4f7ff6c71c4cf6cd1e51d31833ff49a67210ed81db5a813574 |
| Apple | 8¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-apple-polymarket-0x55a5a4b50b7947482e95af8f638fa0b8d9a46740c5cd04c6799443e83565176a |
| Above 3.6% | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Above 4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t4.0 |
| Above 2.5% | 91¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-25-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.5 |
| Above 3.7% | 31¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-37-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.7 |
| Above 3.8% | 7¢ | ±0 | $751 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-38-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.8 |
| Anthropic | 64¢ | −1pp | $239 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a |
| Above 3.9% | 3¢ | ±0 | $204 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-39-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.9 |
| Above 2.6% | 66¢ | ±0 | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-26-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.6 |
| Above 3.5% | 84¢ | ±0 | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-35-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.5 |
| Above 3.4% | 95¢ | ±0 | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-34-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 36 |
| 2026-04-19 | 40 |
| 2026-04-26 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Above 3.4% −25pp 94→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Above 3.4% +25pp 69→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Alphabet +19pp 12→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Alphabet −15pp 31→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · SpaceX +13pp 3→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that a specific company will be the second-largest by market capitalization at the end of April 2026. The 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (49%) and Polymarket (32%) suggests disagreement about which company is most likely to hold this position. Market participants appear to be weighing factors including relative stock performance, earnings announcements, and shifts in investor sentiment across technology and artificial intelligence sectors. The current 40% aggregate reflects uncertainty about whether one clear candidate will emerge as second-largest, or whether competitive positioning among major tech firms will remain contested. Resolution will occur when market capitalizations are measured at the close of April 2026, with real-time stock price movements and trading volume in the months leading up to that date serving as the primary indicators of how this probability may shift.

### Key factors

- Relative stock price performance of leading tech companies (Alphabet, NVIDIA, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon) directly determines their market cap rankings on the resolution date
- The 17 percentage-point venue gap suggests meaningful disagreement on fundamentals; analyzing what specific information each market is weighting differently could indicate mispricing
- AI model capability announcements and market perception of which company leads in artificial intelligence will likely influence tech valuations substantially through April 2026
- Earnings results and forward guidance from major technology companies in Q1 and Q2 2026 will provide concrete data affecting investor positioning
- Correlation patterns between the top-performing contracts (NVIDIA at 69¢, Anthropic at 68¢) and this probability may indicate spillover effects from AI sector confidence

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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