# 2nd largest company end of May

> Alphabet leads at 96%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2nd-largest-company-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:08.403Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Alphabet at 96%
- Runner-up: Apple at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $48K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 96¢ | −2pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/2nd-largest-company-end-of-may-alphabet-polymarket-0xc7d6aa9c99200f929db6f7b20585713162722c1aac273ae2e723593361227170 |
| Apple | 3¢ | +2pp | $25K | polymarket | /markets/2nd-largest-company-end-of-may-apple-polymarket-0xefa10d84a527e0f0dd6701099be4dbae6399f73607621e9d1d299536a6717053 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alphabet | Apple |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 86 | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 87 | 2 |
| 2026-05-14 | 96 | 2 |
| 2026-05-21 | 92 | 6 |
| 2026-05-28 | 93 | 7 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Apple +12pp 6→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Alphabet +9pp 86→95¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Apple −8pp 13→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Alphabet −7pp 92→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Alphabet −7pp 85→78¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that Alphabet will be the second-largest publicly traded company by market capitalization at the end of May 2026. Market participants assign Alphabet an 87% chance of holding this position, with Apple at 3% and NVIDIA at 10%. The ranking depends primarily on relative stock price movements and market sentiment around each company's fundamentals. Tech valuations have historically been volatile, and shifts in investor preference between search/advertising (Alphabet), consumer devices (Apple), and AI chips (NVIDIA) could alter rankings. The outcome resolves based on market capitalization data published at month-end, making this sensitive to any major corporate announcements, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts affecting sector rotation between now and May 31, 2026.

### Key factors

- Alphabet currently trades at approximately $180+ billion ahead of Apple and NVIDIA in market cap; Apple would need significant outperformance to overtake it by month-end
- NVIDIA's AI momentum could drive rapid valuation changes; any major contract wins or guidance beats would directly pressure Alphabet's ranking
- Aggregate volume across three contracts remains relatively modest ($7,200 in 24h volume), suggesting limited institutional participation and potential price sensitivity to new information
- Apple faces specific risks including iPhone sales data and services growth narrative; any disappointing earnings would reinforce current market positioning
- Macroeconomic factors—particularly interest rate expectations and AI investment cycles—could trigger sector-wide reallocation affecting all three companies simultaneously

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2nd-largest-company-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=2nd-largest-company-may

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.